Southeast Asia will be one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to
climate change unless countries make dramatic cuts in greenhouse gas
pollution. According to a 2018 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, a global warming increase of 1.5
degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) will cause rising seas,
dangerous flooding, and changing rain patterns leading to violent
typhoons and drought. Global warming poses a threat to
food security, hobbles economic
growth, prompts political
instability, and catalyzes pandemics.
In extreme cases, it can create an
environment conducive to terrorist activities.
The 10 countries of Southeast Asia are critical to U.S. national
security and economic wellbeing. The region has a population of 676
million, an economy topping $3
trillion, and the United States is its fourth-largest
trading partner. Unless climate change is checked, the Asian
Development Bank estimates the region’s economy could shrink by 11
percent by the end of the century due to the toll on agriculture,
fisheries, and tourism. The United States and China are actively vying
for the hearts and minds of this dynamic region. Mitigating the effects
of climate change is key to the United States’ goal to secure a
free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.
The impact of climate change on U.S. allies and partners is a
strategic challenge to the United States. U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd
Austin has called climate
change a “profoundly destabilizing force for our world,” adding that the
Pentagon would treat climate change as a national security priority and
that ignoring climate change makes defending the United States and its
allies more difficult.
Health security is another critical issue for the United States.
Southeast Asia, a frequent origin of
infectious diseases, will experience substantial outbreaks as the
environmental impact of natural disasters is exacerbated by climate
change. A key priority of the United States Agency for International
Development’s work in the Indo-Pacific is to protect the
natural environments that reduce the risk of disease outbreaks in the
region.
Four countries through which the Mekong River flows confront a shared
set of climate difficulties. The 2,700-mile river begins in China before
eventually spilling into Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
Over 60
million people in the lower Mekong make their living from its
water and fish and its silt and nutrients for farming. In recent years,
China has completed 11
dams on its portion of the river and several more in Laos and
Cambodia, which hold back giant quantities of water, block fish
migration, and retain the silt needed to prevent saltwater infiltration
from the South China Sea into Vietnam’s fertile Mekong Delta. Due to the
impact of climate change in the lower Mekong countries in 2019, the
region faced its worst drought in 100
years, while China’s dams deprived the
downstream nations of water.
Southeast Asia’s massive coastal populations in archipelagic countries
like the Philippines and Indonesia are at immediate risk from sea level
rises and extreme weather events, particularly those working in
agriculture and fishing. Sea level rises threaten to inundate large
swaths of the region’s coast and are expected to displace millions of
people. Even if the world manages to keep average global temperature
rises to 1.5
degrees, sea level rises will still inundate huge swaths of farmland
and submerge densely populated cities, forcing millions to flee their
homes.
The Philippines lies in the planet’s most cyclone-prone region, with
an increasing
number of deadly storms making landfall each year. Much of the
coral around the Philippine islands will die due to rising temperatures
and acidification, threatening to cut fish stocks in half in the next few
decades. An expected shorter rainy season in Indonesia will have a
harmful impact on agriculture, which employs about half of the country’s
population. Roughly half of the capital of Jakarta is already below sea
level, some areas are sinking rapidly, and increasing parts of the city
will be inundated in the decades ahead. As one of the world’s largest
rice exporters, Thailand’s crops and the livelihoods of nearly half its
population are threatened by as
little as one degree of warming. Without scientific breakthroughs,
rice yields in the economies of Southeast Asia could drop as much
as 50
percent by 2100.
All the countries of Southeast Asia signed the Paris
Climate Agreement, but most have few strategies to prevent the most
severe climate hazards. Energy demand continues to grow, and coal alone
accounts for nearly
40 percent of the increased energy needs in the region. The use
of coal is growing and is driven partly by its relative abundance and low
cost compared to oil, gas, and renewables. Deforestation makes it
difficult for countries to capture greenhouse gases before they enter the
atmosphere and warm the planet. In Indonesia, home to some of the world’s
largest forests, deforestation accounts for almost
half of the country’s increasing emissions.
Despite the dire forecast for how climate change will hurt Southeast
Asia over the next few decades, the situation is not all doom and gloom.
Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy and the world’s
fourth-largest carbon emitter, is making efforts to rein in deforestation
and stepping up its manufacture of batteries
and electric vehicles. Thailand and Vietnam are
turning increasingly to renewable energy sources to reduce the Thai
dependence on Mekong dams and Vietnam’s coal-fired plants.
But the plans of most countries in the region focus on climate change
reduction while simultaneously promoting energy development for economic
growth using coal. Because of the complex nature and extent of climate
change effects in Southeast Asia, projects to adapt to and resist climate
change will need to rely on global climate change funds, international
lending institutions, and foreign governments.
President Joe Biden at his climate summit in April announced that he
would launch an
international climate finance plan to support the transition to
a global economy less dependent on carbon. Biden’s effort will require
that the United States recruit other world leaders, international funding
agencies, and private companies to help countries in Southeast Asia cut
their emissions, phase out coal power plants, replant forests and
mangroves along their coasts, and install wind turbines and solar panels
to power their growth.
With post-pandemic economic recovery at the top of the agenda for
political leaders across Southeast Asia, the United States can deepen its
relations, increase economic cooperation, and support green initiatives
simultaneously. For the United States not to address the existential
threats of climate change in regions like Southeast Asia could profoundly
destabilize global security. If the United States helps the region limit
the most damaging impact from climate change, it will reap the soft-power
benefits, gain advantages from high levels of trade and investment, and
promote U.S. prosperity back home.
Murray Hiebert is a
senior associate of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Danielle
Fallin is program coordinator and research assistant for the CSIS
Southeast Asia Program.
This commentary is
made possible by support from the Hewlett Foundation.
Commentary is
produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a
private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy
issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not
take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and
conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be
solely those of the author(s).
© 2021 by the
Center for Strategic and International Studies
