Wednesday, June 3, 2020

COVID-19 Case Projection Model for the NCR (June 3, 2020)

The June 3, 2020 7-Day Projections and Long-Term Projections for NCR COVID-19 Cases; and Medical Demand Projections for Hospitalized, ICU, and Ventilator Cases are shown below. 

The Long-Term Projections go out to 21 days. Please understand that with the longer projections, the level of uncertainty also increases.

Individual county-level projection graphs are available in the attachment.

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IEM’s AI Modeling:  Short-term COVID-19 Projections For MWCOG
NEW:  Long-range COVID-19 Projections


Leveraging over 15 years of support to HHS for medical consequence modeling and our proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) models, IEM believes that our Coronavirus model outputs can be used to assist localities and their medical facilities to better prepare for an increase in hospitalizations, to better plan for and locate drive-through testing facilities, and to determine where increased levels of transmission may be occurring.  

We have been refining our AI model over the past month and are confident in its ability to provide accurate 7-Day projections of confirmed cases that can be used for operational and logistical planning.  Additionally, we also provide projections for medical demand – hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) care, and mechanical ventilation.  New long-range projections have been developed to provide projections for up to 3 weeks.  These long-range projections naturally have higher uncertainty than the short-term (7-day) projections.

AI-based Model Background

IEM is currently using an AI model to fit data from various sources and project new cases of COVID-19.  We do not assume the average number of secondary infections (R-value) stays the same over time.  IEM’s AI model finds the best R-value over time to evaluate how it changes over the course of the outbreak.  The IEM modeling team is running ~11 million simulations to fit each jurisdiction’s data for actual confirmed cases and using the best fit for the R-value to project new cases over the next 7 days. Any changes in the R-value are purely based on the confirmed case data and are not attributable to specific factors such as social distancing (although social distancing is a major factor).  The AI models are executed on a daily basis to evaluate the changing dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our projections have typically been within 20%, and are often within 10%, of actual confirmed cases.

The projections shown in this document are based on data pulled in as of 6/3/20 11 a.m.

Please provide any feedback or send any questions that you might have to us.  We are continually updating and improving the model, so your feedback is critical.  

Also, if you have more current or refined data for your jurisdiction that you would like IEM to factor in, please let us know.




IEM’s Modeling Lead

Dr. Prasith “Sid” Baccam is a Computational Epidemiologist expert at IEM with more than 20 years of experience in medical consequence modeling and simulation of disease outbreaks and medical consequences following hypothetical attacks with biological agents or emerging infectious diseases. He develops key simulation models and decision support tools at IEM, specializing in public health, disaster response, and medical countermeasures (MCM) to enhance data-driven decision making and improve modeling assumptions.

Upon receiving his Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics and Immunobiology at Iowa State University, Dr. Baccam worked as a Postdoctoral Research Associate at Los Alamos National Laboratory where he focused on researching viral and immunological modeling. He has worked with state and local public health officials as well as Federal agencies, including HHS, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Dr. Baccam has published numerous papers on public health response models and implications on policy and has been invited to participate in workshops and symposiums held by the Institute of Medicine (now the National Academy of Health). His modeling results have been briefed to the Executive Office of the President and informed two presidential policy actions.    
            Actual Confirmed Cases: 6/2/20                 Projected Confirmed Cases: 6/9/20

 
         

Actual Confirmed Cases On:


Projected Cases For:




5/31
6/1
6/2
6/3
6/4
6/5
6/6
6/7
6/8
6/9
6/16
6/23
Washington DC
8,801
8,886
9,016
9,101
9,183
9,263
9,341
9,416
9,488
9,559
9,998
10,355
Charles  Co., MD
1,120
1,133
1,152
1,167
1,182
1,197
1,212
1,227
1,241
1,256
1,357
1,454
Frederick  Co., MD
1,939
1,961
2,013
2,042
2,071
2,101
2,131
2,162
2,193
2,225
2,464
2,733
Montgomery  Co., MD
11,476
11,731
11,924
12,138
12,350
12,562
12,773
12,982
13,192
13,400
14,836
16,236
Prince George's  Co., MD
15,808
15,968
16,116
16,339
16,558
16,772
16,983
17,190
17,394
17,593
18,898
20,052
Arlington  Co., VA
2,123
2,133
2,142
2,160
2,177
2,193
2,209
2,224
2,239
2,254
2,344
2,416
Fairfax  Co., VA
11,341
11,548
11,718
11,935
12,150
12,362
12,573
12,782
12,989
13,195
14,590
15,911
Loudoun  Co., VA
2,611
2,636
2,659
2,719
2,779
2,841
2,905
2,969
3,035
3,102
3,612
4,197
Prince William  Co., VA
7,085
7,186
7,323
7,494
7,665
7,838
8,011
8,185
8,360
8,536
9,795
11,101
Alexandria, VA
1,981
2,000
2,016
2,039
2,061
2,083
2,104
2,124
2,144
2,163
2,283
2,382
NCR
64,285
65,182
66,079
67,134
68,176
69,212
70,242
71,261
72,275
73,283
80,177
86,837
     
Projection Graphs:
 

Maryland County Projection Graphs:

             
Maryland County Projection Graphs:
 



Virginia County Projection Graphs:


 

Virginia County Projection Graphs:
 

Virginia City Projection Graphs:
              



Some recipients of our daily COVID-19 short-term (7 day) projections have requested projections of demand for: hospital bed, intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and mechanical ventilation. We realize that different states and localities will have different characteristics for hospital demand of COVID-19 cases, and we are presenting the best assumptions we could find for those medical demands based on scientific literature and health data reporting. Specifically:
        Beds: For hospitalization, we use a range of 10% and 20% of cases require hospitalization based on CDC’s report (MMWR, March 18, 2020) and state reports of COVID-19 cases.  
        ICU: The CDC report found that 24% of hospitalized cases require ICU care.  
        Ventilators: Based on clinical data from China and state reports, we assume that 50% of ICU cases require a ventilator.  
 
If you have other estimates for these assumptions, please share them with us as we work to refine our modeling, assumptions, and data on a daily basis.

The medical demands shown in the table assume 20% of cumulative confirmed cases require hospitalization. To get the medical demand for the assumption that 10% of confirmed cases require hospitalization, simply divide the demand by 2.  If you have your own jurisdiction-specific percentages, those can be applied to the projected cases to derive your own medical demands.  Likewise, you can apply your own jurisdiction’s demographics information to the projected cases to estimate impacts on subpopulations within your community (such as people over the age of 65 years).

Medical Demand Projections:

Actual Confirmed Cases On:
Projected Cases   (Hospitalized)   [ICU]   {Ventilator}  For:

    5/31         6/1
6/2
6/9
6/16
6/23
Washington DC
8,801           8,886
9,016
9,559   (1,912)   [459]   {229}
9,998   (2,000)   [480]   {240}
10,355   (2,071)   [497]   {249}
Charles  Co., MD
1,120           1,133
1,152
1,256   (251)   [60]   {30}
1,357   (271)   [65]   {33}
1,454   (291)   [70]   {35}
Frederick  Co., MD
1,939           1,961
2,013
2,225   (445)   [107]   {53}
2,464   (493)   [118]   {59}
2,733   (547)   [131]   {66}
Montgomery  Co., MD
11,476        11,731
11,924
13,400   (2,680)   [643]   {322}
14,836   (2,967)   [712]   {356}
16,236   (3,247)   [779]   {390}
Prince George's  Co., MD
15,808        15,968
16,116
17,593   (3,519)   [844]   {422}
18,898   (3,780)   [907]   {454}
20,052   (4,010)   [962]   {481}
Arlington  Co., VA
2,123           2,133
2,142
2,254   (451)   [108]   {54}
2,344   (469)   [112]   {56}
2,416   (483)   [116]   {58}
Fairfax  Co., VA
11,341        11,548
11,718
13,195   (2,639)   [633]   {317}
14,590   (2,918)   [700]   {350}
15,911   (3,182)   [764]   {382}
Loudoun  Co., VA
2,611           2,636
2,659
3,102   (620)   [149]   {74}
3,612   (722)   [173]   {87}
4,197   (839)   [201]   {101}
Prince William  Co., VA
7,085           7,186
7,323
8,536   (1,707)   [410]   {205}
9,795   (1,959)   [470]   {235}
11,101   (2,220)   [533]   {266}
Alexandria, VA
1,981           2,000
2,016
2,163   (433)   [104]   {52}
2,283   (457)   [110]   {55}
2,382   (476)   [114]   {57}
NCR
64,285        65,182
66,079
73,283   (14,657)   [3,518]   {1,759}
80,177   (16,035)   [3,848]   {1,924}
86,837   (17,367)   [4,168]   {2,084}



For additional information from IEM, please contact Bryan Koon, Vice President of Emergency Management and Homeland Security at bryan.koon@iem.com or 850-519-7966 or Stephanie Tennyson at stephanie.tennyson@iem.com or 202-309-4257. 



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