Natural increase (more births than deaths) had been on the decline
since 2020 and more states had natural decrease (more deaths than births) in the
first years of the decade than at any point in the 2010s, driven largely by
mortality hikes combined with smaller decreases in births.
Areas with large older populations often experience natural decrease
and shrinking populations in the absence of migration. Prior to 2020,
natural increase for the United States hovered around one million a
year. It began declining in 2020 but this national trend obscured widespread
natural decrease at the state level since the beginning of the
decade.
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