July 7, 2022 1:00 am
2 min read
In retirement communities around the nation some folks
are dancing with joy.
Millions who retired under the federal civil service program, everybody entitled to retired
military pay or Social Security are anticipating their largest cost of
living adjustment in 40 years: anywhere from 8-11%.
Any COLA in that range (and it could be even more)
would be the biggest raise in decades for the biggest bloc in the nation. In
January of this year, the COLA was 5.9% for most. And 4.9% for feds under the
newer FERS retirement program. Hold that thought…
But many silver linings have a cloud. The annual COLA
catch-up , the nation’s biggest raise for the most people, is no exception. A
record 2023 inflation catch-up — whether 8%, 11% or more — is great. A must. It
will help a lot.
But do the math! A record COLA, regardless of its
amount, won’t solve any financial squeeze many retirees are in. It won’t make
up for the record inflation the nation and world are suffering. Especially
after years of modest 2-3% price increases.
The January 2023 COLA will reflect living cost hikes
and inflation, that have already taken place. You are paying for things now
using 2021 pricing data.
The exact amount of the COLA won’t be known until
October. That’s when the inflation-tracking CPI (consumer price index) data for
July, August and September is available. The good news it will be big. The
not-so-good news is that for many, it won’t be enough. And for feds who are
retired or will be retiring under the newer FERS program, the COLA news is even
grimmer. Because of a diet-COLA feature, FERS retirees get one percentage point
less than CSRS/Social Security retirees if inflation exceeds 3%. That’s more
inflation protection than most private sector retirees have. But not enough to
keep up with things like gasoline, food and clothing. And for many retirees,
higher medical and home care costs, which are not fully reflected in the CPI
data.
Over periods of high inflation retirees, like those
under the FERS program, are not fully protected from inflation. In periods of
high inflation, like now, they lose more and more purchasing power each year.
There are proposals, pushed by groups like the National Active and Retired
Federal Employees, that would switch the COLA to a government measuring tool
that takes into account the higher costs of older retirees. But for now it is
what it is.
Good news: A possible record high inflation adjustment
is in the works!
Bad news: It would be in response to a record high jump in inflation. Meaning more people are financially treading water. And it could get worse before it gets better.
